Introduction

FantaZsports.com® is a game that allows users to make predictions on the outcome of multiple discrete events within a sports game or other broadcast. For example: the outcome of the first at bat of an inning in a baseball game. Possible outcomes for this event could be hit, walk, out, or 'any other' (e.g. wild pitch).

The game presents users with a dynamic list of events, constantly updated throughout the course of a sports game or awards presentation. For any event users can select the outcome which they believe will occur. This is called a pick. Users can make unlimited picks throughout a game but can only make one pick for any given event. Players are rewarded with points for correct picks and penalized for incorrect picks by having points deducted.

The objective of FantaZsports.com is to accrue the most points within a set period of time. Groups of users compete against each other in tournaments which can span games, segments of games, seasons or any arbitrary amount of time. Tournament winners may be rewarded with cash and/or prizes.

Points

A player enters a tournament with a set number of points. Winning and losing points is based on an algorithm that 1) rewards correct picks (wins) and penalizes incorrect picks (losses) 2) rewards 'unlikely' wins on an exponential scale and 3) rewards frequent play.

So roughly speaking:

• Loss = - x
• Win = x * (probability) * (risk multiplier) * (play coefficient)

Where:
x is some number of points
probability is the likelihood of an outcome based solely on the number of possible outcomes
the risk multiplier is a number that increases the win when the outcome is deemed unlikely based on all user picks taken as a whole and decreases the win when the outcome is deemed likely
the play coefficient is some number greater than one such that over time making 'random' picks should result in an increase in points

Probability

The probability of an outcome affects wins and losses as follows:

• Loss = - x points
• Win = x points * (number of outcomes - 1)

For example if an event has 6 possible outcomes (such as a dice roll) a win earns 5 points and a loss results in -1 point. Therefore, assuming all outcomes have the same likelihood, the net effect of selecting randomly many times will be 0.

Risk Multiplier

Obviously not all outcomes for a sporting event are equally likely. To discourage overly conservative play and to make the game more interesting selecting an obvious outcome only nets a marginal point gain. So outcomes that are heavily favored based on the total number of picks result in lower risk multipliers and consequently a lower wins, and vice versa: 'high risk' picks result in proportionally high wins.

The risk multiplier for outcome A of event Z is calculated as follows:

• (total number of picks for all outcomes of event Z / number of outcomes)
• Number of outcome A picks

Players do not see the risk multiplier adding a group psychology element to the game: not only will they need to consider what they think is most likely, they'll also need to consider what picks they think other users are making.